Curve date: 04-02-2026 - Source: FRED (DGS constant-maturity series)
A spread is the difference between two Treasury rates, calculated as (first maturity) minus (second maturity). Positive means the first rate listed is higher; negative means the second is higher.
| Maturity | Yield (%) |
|---|---|
| 1 Mo | 3.72 |
| 3 Mo | 3.70 |
| 6 Mo | 3.72 |
| 1 Yr | 3.68 |
| 2 Yr | 3.79 |
| 5 Yr | 3.94 |
| 10 Yr | 4.31 |
| 30 Yr | 4.88 |
Core PCE is a monthly index and it is released with a lag. This section shows the latest Core PCE reading available in FRED and what it implies for the rate path.
| Metric | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE YoY | 3.06% (month: Jan 2026) | Above target; cuts may be gradual |
| Core PCE 3M annualized | 3.66% | Running hot recently |
What these two metrics mean (and how the math works)
Core PCE YoY is the percent change versus the same month one year ago. The script takes the latest Core PCE index level and divides it by the index level 12 months earlier. That division gives you a growth factor. A factor of 1.0277 means the index is 2.77 percent higher than a year ago. The minus 1 is there to strip out the baseline 1.00 and leave only the change. Then we multiply by 100 to express it as a percent. So the calculation is: (latest ÷ 12 months ago − 1) × 100.
Core PCE 3M annualized is a short-term momentum check. It compares the latest index level to the level from three months earlier, then scales that three-month move into a yearly pace. Because a year has four three-month periods, the script raises the three-month growth factor to the 4th power. Just like above, subtract 1 to remove the baseline and multiply by 100 to convert to percent. So the calculation is: ((latest ÷ 3 months ago) ^ 4 − 1) × 100.
How to read this quickly: YoY tells you the longer trend. 3M annualized tells you what is happening right now. It is normal to see YoY stay elevated while 3M annualized cools, because YoY still includes older months that were hotter. If the 3M number is falling, it is a sign inflation pressure is easing even if the YoY number has not fully caught up yet.
This page updates to the latest business day available in FRED. (Weekends and holidays will show the prior business day.)
Curve state is based on the difference between the 10 Yr and 3 Mo Treasury yields. A +/-0.25 percent range is treated as flat to reduce noise from small daily moves.
Maintained by Dylan Lynch | LinkedIn