Daily Treasury Yield Curve and Deposit Signals

Curve date: 05-20-2026 - Source: FRED DGS constant-maturity series

Curve state: Normal

Key spreads

A spread is the difference between two Treasury rates, calculated as first maturity minus second maturity. Positive means the first rate listed is higher; negative means the second is higher.

10Y-3M: +0.92% (overall curve slope)
10Y-2Y: +0.53% (medium vs long-term slope)
30Y-10Y: +0.54% (extra reward for very long term)
1M-3M: +0.00% (very short-term conditions)

Curve table

Maturity	Yield (%)
1 Mo	3.65
3 Mo	3.65
6 Mo	3.75
1 Yr	3.79
2 Yr	4.04
5 Yr	4.22
10 Yr	4.57
30 Yr	5.11

Historical rate comparison

This table compares today's Treasury rates with approximately 30 days ago, 90 days ago, and one year ago. It helps show whether deposit-rate pressure is rising, falling, or mostly unchanged.

Metric	Today	30D Ago	90D Ago	1Y Ago	Change vs 30D	Change vs 90D	Change vs 1Y
3 Mo	3.65%	3.71%	3.69%	4.38%	-0.06%	-0.04%	-0.73%
6 Mo	3.75%	3.72%	3.60%	4.32%	+0.03%	+0.15%	-0.57%
1 Yr	3.79%	3.65%	3.50%	4.12%	+0.14%	+0.29%	-0.33%
2 Yr	4.04%	3.72%	3.47%	3.97%	+0.32%	+0.57%	+0.07%
10 Yr	4.57%	4.26%	4.08%	4.48%	+0.31%	+0.49%	+0.09%
10Y-3M Spread	0.92%	0.55%	0.39%	0.10%	+0.37%	+0.53%	+0.82%

Inflation context

PCE is the inflation measure tied to the Fed's 2% target. This section shows the latest PCE reading available in FRED and whether inflation is moving closer to or farther from that target.

Metric	Latest	Read
PCE YoY	3.50% (month: Mar 2026)	Above target; Fed may stay cautious
PCE 3M annualized	5.61%	Inflation has been running hot recently

How to read this: YoY shows how much prices have increased over the past year. The 3M annualized number shows the recent pace of inflation by taking the last three months and converting that pace into a yearly rate. For deposit strategy, higher PCE can keep short-term rates sticky, while cooling PCE can support lower rate expectations.

Deposit strategy lens

Long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. Longer terms are paying more, so selectively offering longer CDs can make sense if you want more stable funding.
If core deposits and retention are strong, you may not need as many aggressive short-term promos.
Short-term Treasury rates are close to where they were 30 days ago, suggesting near-term deposit pricing pressure is fairly stable.
Short-term Treasury rates are relatively close to where they were 90 days ago, which suggests quarterly deposit pricing pressure is fairly stable.
Compared with one year ago, short-term rates are materially lower, which points to less funding pressure than earlier in the rate cycle.
PCE inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, which can keep short-term rates elevated and make deposit funding costs slower to fall.
Recent PCE momentum is still running hot, so aggressive deposit-rate cuts may be premature even if the yield curve starts to normalize.

This page updates to the latest business day available in FRED. Weekends and holidays will show the prior business day.

Curve state is based on the difference between the 10 Yr and 3 Mo Treasury yields. A +/-0.25 percentage-point range is treated as flat to reduce noise from small daily moves.

Maintained by Dylan Lynch | LinkedIn